Can McCain forge his own surge in New Hampshire?

MANCHESTER, N. H. — If demanding New Hampshire primary voters have taught us anything through a long history of cantankerous deliberations, it is to never say never. John McCain's presidential hopes hang on that hook.

In 1992, Bill Clinton, surrounded by allegations of infidelity, finished second in New Hampshire and created the "comeback kid" mythology. John Kerry came back from "dead man walking" to win the 2004 Democratic primary here, effectively clinching his party's nomination.

Is McCain, who impressed a focus group of New Hampshire voters during the latest Republican debate, about to follow this path to political reincarnation?

His poll numbers and fundraising have plummeted, his staff has been in tumult. His efforts to forge a compromise on illegal immigration, which his critics saw as amnesty for lawbreakers, hurt him badly among core Republican voters. His support for the troop "surge" in Iraq alienated Democrats who liked his spunk and swing voters who liked his independence.

But Wednesday, on a night when actor-senator-actor Fred Thompson was intent on overshadowing McCain and seven other Republicans debating at the University of New Hampshire with a showbiz announcement, McCain was understated but solid, confident and composed.

He dispensed his trademark wisecracks, his best line coming when he joked that Thompson was a no-show because "maybe we're up past his bedtime."

McCain's service in Vietnam, where he was a POW, drew praise from fellow candidates Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani.

He tried to explain his position on immigration. And he stood firm in an unpopular corner: support of George W. Bush's "surge" strategy in Iraq.

"It IS working," McCain told a yet-to-be-convinced Mitt Romney, "and we have to rally the American people."

The Granite State embraced McCain once before. The Arizona senator trounced Bush here in 2000.

At a focus group assembled to watch the debate from the Merrimack Restaurant in downtown Manchester, McCain picked up some steam.

Only three of the 29 had come to the restaurant supporting McCain; by night's end, most thought McCain clearly had done the best, that Giuliani had bombed, and Romney, on the defensive on immigration and on his commitment to winning in Iraq, appeared too packaged.

The group was assembled by Frank Luntz, whose focus group a few days before the Iowa caucuses in 2004 caught the scent of Howard Dean's impending collapse and Kerry's surge to first place.

This New Hampshire group was scientifically chosen to roughly reflect polls that showed Romney with a clear advantage, followed by Giuliani, McCain and the rest of the field. Like the GOP field itself, the focus groupers were all white, mostly middle-aged and older.

Those in the group dial up or down their feelings as they watch a presidential debate, and one of the highest scores of the night on the collective dial-a-meters came when McCain talked about leaving Iraq with "honor." Another high point came when McCain promised to veto pork-barrel spending.

Jackie Fortier, 56, a registered nurse, came in supporting Giuliani, but was impressed with McCain. "He seemed to be getting more confident the longer the debate went on," she said. Fortier reflected group consensus when she said she tired of Giuliani's constant references to the tough job he did as mayor of New York — before, during and after 9/11.

"It's not New York City that he is going to be running," a focus group member in a baseball cap chimed in.

But not everyone was sold on McCain's performance. Luntz said he believed McCain stood out in part because of a generally lackluster performance by the other contenders.

Will Riordan, 21, the youngest participant in Luntz's focus group, said he came in supporting Romney and left feeling the same way. He's worried that McCain has been stamped as an "uber-conservative" because of his stance in support of the war, among other things, and as a result could be easy prey for Democrat Hillary Clinton should she be the nominee in next year's general election.

"Not enough people watch debates to change their opinions of him," Riordan, a student at the London School of Economics, said of McCain.

The Arizona senator can only hope that the young college student is wrong and that his debate performance was the beginning of another comeback kid's journey.

Contact GNS Political Writer Chuck Raasch at craasch@gns.gannett.com

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